Record Last Week: 8-5
Record for the Season: 111-68
Happy Thanksgiving. I’m forever thankful to everyone who reads what I write and has supported me on my journey. It means everything to me.
Thanksgiving Day Games
Thursday, November 28th 11:30 AM CT
Chicago Bears 4-7 @ Detroit Lions 10-1
The Bears have played better the last two weeks against their other NFC North rivals, almost pulling off upsets over the Packers and Vikings. Now against the final boss the Lions this will take their best game yet. I believe the Bears will play a good game, but the Lions get the win at home on Thanksgiving.
Bears 24 Lions 27
Confidence Level:9
X-Factor: Jameson Williams
Best Bet: Jameson Williams over 47.5
Thursday, November 28th 3:30 PM CT
New York Giants 2-9 @ Dallas Cowboys 4-7
The Giants face the Cowboys in the, it’s cool to spend time with your family instead of watching the game. Cooper Rush vs Tommy DeVito doesn’t excite anyone and I feel like the Cowboys are the better team so I’ll give Dallas the win.
Giants 17 Cowboys 20
Confidence Level:5
X-Factor: Cooper Rush
Best Bet: Malik Nabers over 63.5 receiving yards
Thursday, November 28th, 7:20 PM CT
Miami Dolphins 5-6 @ Green Bay Packers 8-3
The Packers offense has begun to become more run first in recent weeks, and their defense when Jordan Love isn’t turning the ball over, has been one of the better units. Miami has gone on a nice win streak to keep their season alive but I think Green Bay is too much of a challenge for them and Green Bay ends their win streak.
Dolphins 22 Packers 27
Confidence Level:7
X-Factor: Jordan Love intrusive thoughts
Best Bet: Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards
Friday November 29th, 2:00 PM CT
Las Vegas Raiders 2-9 @ Kansas City Chiefs 10-1
The Raiders played the Chiefs tough a few weeks ago and the Raiders always take this matchup personally and Kansas City has struggled the last few weeks. Patrick Mahomes remembers all the trash talk from the offseason and Kansas City gets the W.
Raiders 16 Chiefs 26
Confidence Level:8
X-Factor: Patrick Mahomes
Best Bet Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Sunday, December 1st, Noon CT Games
Arizona Cardinals 6-5 @ Minnesota Vikings 9-2
Arizona suffered a tough loss to the Seahawks and now against the Vikings defense, I think the Cardinals offense plays better than last week but, the Vikings defense limits Arizona just enough for the Vikings to get the win.
Cardinals 20 Vikings 26
Confidence Level:7
X-Factor: Justin Jefferson
Best Bet:Justin Jefferson over 77.5 receiving yards
Los Angeles Chargers 7-4 @ Atlanta Falcons 6-5
The Falcons need this game as their division lead over the Bucs has dwindled. The Chargers are coming off a loss on Monday night against the Ravens and their defense will look to bounce back. Atlanta is coming off a bye week and they do have the offense to win but defensively, they are subpar and against the Chargers they’ll need both sides to play at a high level. Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll get that performance against the Chargers.
Chargers 30 Falcons 23
Confidence Level:8
X-Factor: Falcons secondary
Best Bet: Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Indianapolis Colts 5-7 @ New England Patriots 3-9
The Patriots have struggled the last two weeks and now they face the Colts who seem close to breaking through offensively but they keep getting in their own way. I believe Anthony Richardson has a good week against a poor Patriots defense and leads to the Colts getting the win.
Colts 24 Patriots 20
Confidence Level: 6
X-Factor: Anthony Richardson
Best Bet: Anthony Richardson over 46.5 rushing yards
Seattle Seahawks 6-5 @ New York Jets 3-8
The Jets are coming off a bye week but with all the stuff they’ve been through this season it’s hard to imagine their issues could be fixed. Seattle is flying high after two wins over the 49ers and Cardinals, and now are in first place in the NFC West. I can’t put any more faith in the Jets so I’m going to pick the Seahawks to get the win.
Seahawks 21 Jets 17
Confidence Level: 6
X-Factor: Kenneth Walker
Best Bet: Kenneth Walker over 62.5 rushing yards
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-3 @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-7
Cincy is coming off a mini bye and the Steelers are coming off a mini bye as they suffered a loss to the Browns last Thursday.. The Bengals lose their season is essentially over so I’m going to roll with the Bengals to get the win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Steelers 23 Bengals 27
Confidence Level:3
X-Factor: Joe Burrow
Best Bet: Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Houston Texans 7-5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-9
The Jaguars are coming off a bye while the Texans are coming off a disappointing loss to the Titans last week. I expect C.J. Stroud to bounce back from a subpar performance for his standards and the Texans get the win over their divisional rival.
Texans 28 Jaguars 17
Confidence Level:8
X-Factor: C.J. Stroud
Best Bet: Joe Mixon anytime touchdown
Tennessee Titans 3-8 @ Washington Commanders 7-5
The Titans got an upset win over the Texans while the Commanders were upset at home by the Cowboys. The Commanders offense is starting to fall off, but even still, I think they’ll get the win at home.
Titans 23 Commanders 26
Confidence Level:6.5
X-Factor: Jayden Daniels
Bets Bet: Commanders moneyline
Sunday, December 1st, 3 PM CT Games’
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-6 @ Carolina Panthers 3-8
The Panthers gave the Chiefs everything they could ask for last week and Bryce Young looks like he’s coming into his own as the Panthers Quarterback. Tampa Bay has gotten their season back on track and have a chance to overtake the Falcons in the NFC South. The Bucs have the better team but I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina pulled the upset. I’ll roll with the Bucs to get the win in a close one.
Bucs 29 Panthers 26
Confidence Level:4
X-Factor: Bucky Irving
Best Bet: Bucky Irving over 56.5 rushing yards
Los Angeles Rams 5-6 @ New Orleans Saints 4-7
The Rams had some momentum but after losing two of the last three, they are fighting to keep up in the NFC playoff picture. The Saints are coming off their bye week and they seemed to be getting back to the team that started off on 2-0. I think this week we get a great Matthew Stafford performance leading to a needed Rams win.
Rams 30 Saints 26
Confidence Level:7
X-Factor: Matthew Stafford
Best Bet: Rams -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 9-2 @ Baltimore Ravens 8-4
Easily the game of the week between two of the three MVP candidates Saquon Barkley and the Eagles vs Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. I believe both offenses will produce big time highlight plays. The Eagles have the better defense and I think they get a very impressive road win.
Eagles 33 Ravens 29
Confidence Level: 2
X-Factor: Eagles defense
Best Bet: Over 51 total points
Sunday, December 1st, 7:20 PM CT
San Francisco 49ers 5-6 @ Buffalo Bills 9-2
The Bills are coming off a bye and for them to have been as hot as they were going into the bye winning six straight games.Now they’re a fresher healthier team that’s setting them up to end the season on a very high note going into the playoffs. The 49ers are fighting for their season at this point and even if they get Brock Purdy back this week it’s hard to see him being able to overcome all the 49ers deficiencies in order to get the win over the Bills. Give me Buffalo to get the win at home.
49ers 16 Bills 27
Confidence Level: 9
X-Factor: Josh Allen
Best Bet: Bills moneyline
Monday, December 2nd 7:15 PM CT
Cleveland Browns 3-8 @ Denver Broncos 7-5
I’m trying not to smile typing this but the Denver Broncos are in control over their playoff destiny. They have to win games like this to continue to distance themselves from the other AFC teams chasing them for the number seven seed in the AFC. The Browns defense could present some problems for the Broncos but at the end of the day I expect Jameis Winston to turn the ball over a few times and the Broncos efficient offense should be able to control the game and get the win.
Browns 13 Broncos 20
Confidence Level:8
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